Same Old Garbage

Alexander Semin has been the Capitals' best forward this season. You won't hear many other analysts or fans say it, but it's true. Despite being criminally underutilized (e.g., reduced minutes at even strength and the power play, playing with inferior linemates, not being used on the penalty kill) and having to play in a mind numbingly conservative, defense-first-second-and-third system installed by Dale Hunter, Semin has managed to essentially lead the team in even strength scoring rate (Perrault actually leads but largely because of Semin), Corsi, and Scoring Chance ratio (SC% as determined by Neil Greenberg). Ovechkin, Laich, and recently Jay Beagle are being given the lion's share of ice time, but it's really Semin who's being effective.

To wit, compare Ovechkin and Semin's numbers at even strength (I did not include Laich's only because he was given checking line matchups for a good portion of the year and I thought it would be unfair to compare apples and oranges, but know that Laich's numbers are fairly dismal, harder matchups notwithstanding):

There may be a basis upon which Ovechkin receives more than 10% more even strength ice time, but it is certainly not performance. The misuse of Semin is at the top of a long list of curious coaching decisions by Hunter.

On a team that has been mostly terrible all year, Semin has been remarkably effective. Everyone talks about how great Backstrom was playing before he got hurt, but Semin has a higher Scoring Chance %, a higher scoring rate, and a higher Corsi, and he did it all while having to carry around the anchor that is Jason Chimera on his line. For a guy who gets nothing but criticism from the mainstream hockey media, it's been a very good season for Alex Semin. Fans of absurd Pierre McGuire histrionics that lead directly to him being made to look the fool on national TV were given a special gift last night when McGuire harangued Semin for not "bearing down" and being "too casual" in putting a chance off the post after calmly deking Dwayne Roloson out of position. McGuire was literally screaming at Semin, who has the 11th highest goals per game average since the lockout, for not converting the chance after great work by Ovechkin earlier in the shift. The echoes of Mcguire's bloated bloviations, which included calling Semin the definition of, wait for it, an "enigma," had barely quieted when Semin absolutely ripped a one-timer through Roloson for the first goal of the game. What was that about bearing down?

Last night was perhaps the apotheosis of the misuse of Semin under the Hunter regime. In a game where a victory would have all but assured the Capitals of the playoffs, and kept them in the hunt for the division, Semin played a total of 14:11. Through two periods, in what was for the most part a scoreless game, he had played 8:10. When Jason Chimera went off for fighting in the 2nd period, Hunter, rather than change his lines or replace the winger to get Perrault and Semin (the Capitals' two most effective even strength scorers) on the ice, the coach simply chose to not play them until Chimera's penalty time had ended. It's been a stunning misallocation of resources, as was the case under the old guy, and it should not come as a surprise that the team is fighting to make the playoffs. Semin finished with 2 points in his 14 minutes, Ovechkin with none in over 22.

Semin is 53rd in the league in EVP/60 (min 50 GP). Of all the players ahead of him, only 11 have played less (Marchand, Purcell, Peverly, Bergeron, Foligno, Perrault, Voracek, Stalberg, Hudler, Pominville, Stafford). Bos, Ott, Phi, Chi, and Det all score substantially more goals than the goal-starved Capitals, and all have deeper groups of scoring forwards to apportion time, however. Semin was apparently not too happy with his ice time last night, and that makes perfect sense, but it's unclear why George McPhee doesn't feel the same way.

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe

I wasn't initially going to bother with this, but at the urging of my only two regular readers who apparently noticed that I've spewed a fair amount of words pleading for the firing, beheading, or defenestration of Bruce Boudreau, and with him being terminated yesterday, apparently want some form of schadenfreude soaked obituary, an orgy of I-told-you-so feasting on the bloody carcass of a defeated foe. But alas, I don't really have much to say. Yes, I think he ruined the Caps' last two postseasons by not putting together Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin together despite that trio being Corsi- and scoring-dominant over the past three years. And his giving Semin less PP time than Brooks Laich last postseason and this season was asinine. And yes, his team played loosey-goosey and he didn't seem to pick up on the newer tactical developments around the league, e.g. the pp-breakout-drop-pass thing that Van and Det and other teams do. But that said, Boudreau was probably a not-good-but-not-terrible-coach-either. He was mostly hokey and sincere and inarticulate and caring. His biggest crime against me was his mistreatment (i.e., playing him with a revolving door of ill-fitting, unready, and/or inferior linemates) of Alexander Semin, whose abilities and style of play have become largely the only joy I derive from watching the Capitals, or the NHL for that matter. So for that, I certainly but hesitantly celebrated BB's departure. Hesitantly because of what has come next.

While Dale Hunter does have a reputation for playing the fuck out of his stars in junior, I would have preferred the nerd/tactician type. The Bylsma/Babcock/Vigneault breed of coach who understands data and goes on more than just gut, who are if not educated, at least articulate and thoughtful. But most of all, I want a coach that understands that Alexander Semin is probably the best intercepter of opponents passes in the league (whereas Datsyuk is the best thief of puck carriers), is a dominant player along the boards in maintaining and obtaining puck possession, and is a unique offensive talent that needs to be paired with a certain type of center that instinctively plays the European, combinational style to maximize his effectiveness. I don't know if the Caps got that in Hunter - my guess is no - but I do know Hunter is one of the dirtiest players in the history of the sport. Second all-time in penalty minutes, yes, but moreso shit like this:

Am I happy that Boudreau's gone? Sure. Am I optimistic about the future? No.

On Semin, Boudreau, and Understanding

Alexander Semin possesses a unique set of characteristics that often cause extreme polarization among hockey fans and pundits: he is supremely skilled, particularly in areas that are easily observable (FN1), and he seems to operate in a different space from the dominant North American hockey culture, both on the ice – whereas certain preferences exist for those players that appear to skate hard and fast into corners and up and down the ice (FN2), Semin and other such players "let the game come to them" without continually chasing the play/puck so aggressively – and off it – Semin is extremely shy, introverted, and does not speak English well. (FN3) While Semin’s patently high skill level does create expectations that are difficult to meet, what actually fuels the vitriol is subtler: an ingrained preference against a distinct playing style due to a hockey-cultural dissonance, i.e. because a player doesn’t skate around the rink like a madman, combined with an inability or unwillingness to share person and personality with teammates and/or fans, i.e. that there is no connection to the subject, not only poisons any objective evaluation of play but also foments unsupported and ad hominal attacks, such as that Semin “just doesn’t care,” to explain perceived failings. (FN4) Such attacks, long the domain of message board and blog pabulum, were finally levied by actual ex-teammates, first by Matt Bradley and then echoed by David Steckel. Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau and owner Ted Leonsis sort of lukewarmly, or at least inarticulately, responded to the criticisms and defended the player without really explaining why the attacks were without basis. GM George McPhee, however, supplied a brief but appropriate response, noting that Semin is a proven playoff performer, that Bradley got the facts wrong, and perhaps most succinctly and accurately, “[t]his kid’s been productive.”

FN1 – These skills being predominantly stick-handling and shooting, as distinct from other skills that are not always so obvious, e.g., screening the goalie, winning puck battles, etc.

FN2 – Those that play the game this way are not exclusively from North America, see, e.g., Semin’scountryman and good friend, Alexander Ovechkin. Also note the important distinction between appearing to skate hard and fast and actually skating hard and fast. Effortlessly smooth skaters, such as Paul Coffey and Phil Housely, were brutally criticized at various points in their careers for appearing to not work hard enough. Ditto for those players whose games involved patiently waiting in the weeds rather than relentless puck pursuit. Before reaching statistical heights which made them largely criticism-proof, Mario Lemieux and Brett Hull faced criticisms regarding work-ethic that were born more from their style of play than any actual substantive flaw.

FN3 – In over six seasons with the Capitals, he’s given two English language interviews, and both occurred this week. The first was kinda heartbreaking, and the second was awkwardly charming.

FN4 – Another player who is similarly divorced from the predominant North American hockey culture is Nikolai Zherdev. Like Semin, Zherdev plays a passive game that is more read and react than pursue and attack. Zherdev also speaks very little English and in unconcerned with bonding with players or reporters. He is a very good hockey player though, who has no problem scoring or domintating possession at even strength (I’ve written about him before but others have done more). Despite this objective success, Zherdev is one of the more maligned players of his generation by fans, coaches, and reporters.

Notwithstanding the incomplete statistical picture he offered, McPhee is basically correct. Neil Greenberg provides a fuller analysis and concludes with what should have been long obvious to any objective viewer unbiased by a culturally-derived aesthetic preference of the game: Alexander Semin is an extremely effective hockey player who drives possession against tough competition and who is an effective penalty killer. (FN5)

FN5 – An effective but criminally underused penalty-killer. Semin finished the 2010-11 season with .96 TOI/60, 7^th highest among Washington forwards. He did not spend a single second killing penalties in the playoffs. See infra.

McPhee basically nails the point about Semin’s playoff success, but I’d like to delve into Semin’s most recent playoff performance a little deeper with specific reference to how he was utilized.

2011 Playoffs

Power Play

Perhaps the most egregious example of the misuse of Semin came on the PP. The Capitals’ PP was mostly woeful during the season, but Semin was its most productive player:

Semin had the highest scoring rate and received the third most minutes (behind Ovechkin and Backstrom). This is consistent with Semin's PP utilization and production throughout his career, that is, he's played and scored a bunch (scoring rate rank among Capitals’ forwards is in parenthesis):

Those scoring rates are comparable with other elite scorers (Datsyuk’s PP scoring rates are 5.68, 5.38, 7.03, and 5.74 over the same period; Crosby’s are 4.80, 4.62, 5.38 and 5.02). Semin’s proven track record on the PP suggests that he should be used similarly in the playoffs. However, not only did Semin’s PP ice time decrease in the playoffs, relative to the other Capitals’ forwards, it decreased significantly:

While Semin’s raw decrease in power play minutes was only .15 minutes per game (a 5% reduction), the reduction is heightened by the fact that the Capitals as a team saw a 20% increase in power play time from the regular season to the playoffs (5.04 to 6.06). In fact, there were 7(!) other Capitals’ forwards who received more power play ice time than Semin. While Semin has been an elite PP scorer his entire career, none of Knuble, Fehr, or Johansson have ever approached Semin’s scoring on the power play, yet they received more PP time in the playoffs than him. The case of Brooks Laich is an interesting one. Laich received a whopping 3.58 min/game on the PP in the playoffs. That is 31% more time than Semin received. Had Laich ever done anything to suggest that he was a more effective PP player than Semin? No, quite the opposite:

Semin has been used more frequently on the PP his entire career, and he has scored at a higher rate than Laich every year (including 06/07 which is not listed) save for 07/08 when Laich scored at a higher rate but in nearly one-third the PP time. It seems clear that going into the 2011 playoffs, Semin had established himself as a great, bordering on elite, PP player, and Laich had established himself as a good or very good PP player. Yet, for some reason Boudreau opted to use Laich 31% more on the PP than Semin, and opted to use 7 different forwards more than Semin. This strikes me as completely insane, without justification, and a severe misuse of talent. (FN6)

FN6 – Critics may want to point to the fact that Semin didn’t score a single PP point in the playoffs as a justification for Boudreau to curtail his use. This argument fails because the Capitals only scored 5 PPG in the 9 games, so the sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions. Moreover, with respect to shots directed at net, the key driver of PP success, Semin was third on the team in PP Corsi (behind Knuble and Sturm). Laich was eighth.

Even Strength

At even strength during the regular season, Semin produced the second highest point scoring rate and the highest goal scoring rate on the team:

He did this while being paired up front most often with Brooks Laich (51% of the time) and to a lesser extent Nicklas Backstrom (36%) and Alexander Ovechkin (31%). He was paired with rookie Marcus Johansson not infrequently (22%) as well. This tells us that Semin played with a variety of different linemates at different times, and was with the big boys some but not all that often. Semin wasn’t exactly handed a golden key on a silver platter, but he wasn’t exactly slumming it either.

The playoffs were a far different (tragic and stupefying) story, however: Semin spent the majority of his even strength ice time with Jason Arnott (65%) and Marco Sturm (52%). These numbers are actually probably misleading because, while I’m a firm believer in the inverse correlation between shift length and effectiveness, Arnott in particular was taking ridiculously short shifts at even strength in the playoffs. It appears that it was as obvious to him as it was to me that he could barely hang on and keep up with NHL playoff pace, and he accordingly and wisely got off the ice at the earliest opportunity. Good for him, not great for his linemates if they happened to have the puck and were headed in the right direction. There doesn’t seem to be published data for even strength shift length, but we can make do with overall shift length:

The most immediately notable thing in that chart should be just how many fewer minutes Semin got than the “big 4” of Ovechkin, Backstrom, Laich, and Knuble. One of Bradley’s comments was about top players and playing time:

When you’re paying your top guys a lot of money and those
guys carry you through the whole season, and if one of them isn’t going, it’s
very hard not to play them, and I understand that that’s tough. But I think in
the end, if you want to win, sometimes you have to sit some of those guys down
and maybe send a message and try to get them going.

It’s unclear if he’s talking about Semin specifically (it seems to me that he was) or someone else like Backstrom, but he probably should have been talking about Knuble, who was on the ice over 21 minutes a game and scored a whole 2 points, despite playing nearly exclusively with Ovechkin and Backstrom. I imagine "Knoobs" and "Brads" are good friends who talked a lot, whereas it wouldn’t surprise me if Bradley and Semin have never had a conversation. So, Knuble’s a great locker room guy who helps the team win, and Semin’s a monster that doesn’t care and wants to go back to Russia.

Sturm’s shift lengths are muddied because he saw time on the penalty kill, but if you consider that Arnott took about 16% of his ice time on the PP, and if you assume those shifts averaged a minute long, then you can estimate that Arnott’s even strength shifts were about 38 seconds long. Those strike me as the shifts of a player in desperate need to get off the ice because he knew he couldn’t keep up. Although Semin having to essentially babysit Arnott and Sturm so much of the time makes it’s difficult to precisely identify who was driving the results, we can nevertheless make some inferences.

Semin spent two-thirds of his even strength playing time tied down by the grizzly Arnott, during which time they would have had the same Corsi stats, but in the one-third of the time Semin thankfully extricated himself from the Anchor, he managed to create a 13.2 differentiation in Relative Corsi. Same story viz. Sturm, and because Boudreau blessed Semin with even more non-Sturm time, Semin separated himself even further from another old-timer playing on at best one leg. One wonders what Semin and the Capitals could have done if he was paired with actual NHL caliber players more of the time. After falling down by a goal late in game 1 against the Rangers, Boudreau put Semin together with Ovechkin and Backstrom (Prayer is the last refuge of a scoundrel). Semin promptly set up the Capitals’ first and tying goal late in the third. (FN7) There were far too few shifts for the deadly trio during the playoffs, as was the case last year v. Montreal. How many playoff failures will Capitals fans have to endure before Boudreau tries uniting those three for a sustained period of time?

FN7 – Of course Boudreau went back to the old line combinations for the overtime, and Arnott made his one nice play of the entire playoffs and Semin absolutely devastated a one-timer for the win.

Penalty Kill

Semin is a very effective penalty killer:

He had the highest Corsi among Capitals forwards last season. I’ll spare you further charts but let you know that this was also the case in 2009-10 and 2008-09. It’s painfully clear at this point that Semin is really good at limiting opposition shot imbalance (and by proxy, scoring chances) on the penalty kill. It may not jive with traditional hockey narratives of skilled, soft players not playing defense, but the statistics are unmistakably unequivocal in this regard. One person who either does not understand statistic or does not care about the Capitals penalty kill happens to be their coach, unfortunately, as shown:

The player who has demonstrated the highest ability to limit opposition Corsi on the PK over the last three seasons did not receive one single second of PK time in the playoffs. It is a stunningly dumb misallocation of assets and abilities, an important microcosm explaining why the Capitals, despite having a vast collection of talent at every position, perhaps unmatched around the league, have won 2 playoff series in four years under Boudreau.

2011 WJC QF RUS 4 FIN 3 OT

56 and a half minutes into this game (and just a couple hours after my own team's 6-3 loss against our bitter division rivals (1 gorgeous goal, 5 shots, -2)), I was planning on writing a very different post. It was going to be about how the Russians made a mistake in not taking some very talented underage players who play in canadian junior leagues, e.g., Nail Yakupov, Vladislav Namestnikov, Alexander Khokhlachev, and Stanislav Galiev. (Russia's coach, Valeri Bragin, opted for older, more experienced players from the KHL intead, and he also omitted Alexander Avtsin, who plays in Hamilton in the AHL and who played well for Dinamo Moscow last season, presumably because Avtsin missed the pre-tournament exhibition series and so Bragin was not familiar with him. The Russian players selected, with the exception of in Vladimir Tarasenko and Evgeni Kuznetsov, are light on game breaking offensive skill, and Nemenstnikov or Kokhlachev could have made the difference in a tight checking, low scoring game against Finland.) It was also going to be about the shaky Russian goaltending that led to Finland's first goal, where Dimitri Shikin mishandled a weak shot and then appeared to fall down as the Finish player attempted a wrap around which was ultimately poked in. But mostly it was going to be about Kuznetsov, the Washington Capital first rounder who is highly skilled and comes with some personality as well. In the middle of a nice KHL campaign in Chelyabinsk, Kuznetsov brought some high expectations into the tournament, but absent a terrible roughing penalty that put his team down 2 men, he had done nothing virtually nothing against the Fins, who were about to skate away with a well-deserved 3-1 win. That all changed when Kuznetsov took the puck to the net at the end of a uneventful power play and poked in the rebound against Finland's goalie Joni Ortio, who was fantastic all game, to give the Russians some life. And then 2 minutes or so later he did this:

The defenseman he undressed is Sami Vatanen who is their best player and a future NHL star. A gorgeous move at any time of any game, but down by one with a minute and a half to go in an elimination game, it's really a legendary play. Oh yea, he won the game in overtime with a sick shot:

Unfortunately, the Russians have almost no chance today playing on only 15 hours turnaround time against a Swedish team that is stacked and was resting and relaxing while they watched Finland and Russia slug it out. But it was an inspired performance by both teams and some real genius by Kuznetsov.

A Changed Tune

For some reason or reasons that I hope were more nuanced than general jadedness, contrarianism, and curmudgeonry, I was previously not all that excited about the ongoing HBO 24/7 series following the Caps and Pens, despite it featuring my current favorite team and my former favorite/current most detested team, respectively. Well, tonight after watching episode two of four, I will admit: this series is unbearably entertaining. Maybe it was getting to see real hockey players after playing in my own men's league game (0 goals, 2 assists, +2, 3 shots, general tentative and mediocre play in a heartbreaking 6-5 loss in a "must win" game that all but skunked our playoff hopes), or the aid of some late night beers (Stone IPA, 6.3%) and whiskeys (Makers, rocks), but I was more or less paradisiacally enthralled watching the episode.

Quick thoughts:

• Bruce Boudreau is a dummy. Good guy, experienced hockey guy, friendly guy, great junior player, not a self-serving, real politicking actor, etc. All of that notwithstanding, he's hopelessly inarticulate and just not very intelligent, and it comes through almost every time he opens his mouth, whether talking to the camera, the players, or the GM. I don't think those are traits that necessarily preclude someone from being a good hockey coach, but they probably don't help. Luckily he did not appear with his face slathered in BBQ sauce this time.

• I have completely turned around on Crosby this year. He's been so damn good and effective on the ice that even I can no longer disclaim or discount him as a player. But, shockingly, his personality has shown through in this series as well. His recounting of how he and Malkin determined who would be the last one in the line-up of players walking from locker room to the ice - Crosby had always been last on ice his whole career, ditto for Malkin, when Malkin arrived Crosby was like, "uh, how should we settle this, rock, paper, scissors?" And Malkin told him, with Crosby pulling off a perfectly fine Russian accent, that he'd played three years in the RSL, compared to Crosby's one in the NHL - was so interesting and endearing, to both players, and I found it so, for lack of a better word, neat that Crosby, who had already accomplished so much at that point and who was the recognized golden boy of the NHL, not to mention the type of fairly strict superstionist to whom I imagine a routine like that means something, would defer there and laugh at the silliness of it, well, maybe I'm an idiot, but after 5 years of actively and bitterly rooting against him, I think I can finally stop doing that. Which is probably just a means of self-preservation because rooting against him appears to be a losing proposition.

• Matt Hendricks, with black eye, blood swollen pupil, and stitches, kinda reminded me of Skeletor a bit. I knew nothing about Hendricks going into this season - there are a handful of NHL players that I could say that about - but he's been a delightful surprise. Very versatile and useful player, and based on this show, he seems like a decent and fun guy. Why there's a shot of Hendricks with his foot rapped in a bag filled with blood I cannot even imagine.

• Caps celebrating their one win to break the losing streak as if winning the Stanely Cup was a bit lame, though I guess I understand it. That team is going to go insane if they ever actually win anything.

• I thought it was kind of interesting that the Caps trainer appeared to be a bit dismissive with Ovechkin after OV complained of hamstring soreness. For all of my complaints about OV this year (he's looked awful and I think it has to do with a lack of Crosby-like commitment off the ice), I certainly do not get the feeling that he's a very high maintenance player. So when the franchise player, who has been struggling and who plays a ton of minutes, complains of a physical problem, I'd expect the trainer to be excessively diligent and thorough and cautious and using everything but leaches to fix him up. Instead, the trainer told him that you don't use your hamstrings when you skate (which struck me as odd but I guess is true) and suggested that the hamstring was sore from OV squatting the prior day. When OV asked why it was just on one side, the trainer basically just said, "maybe you favor one side. Do you favor one side? ... Just go get a message." The whole thing was weird.

It's a fascinating show and it's intensified my longing to be on more of a real and competitive hockey team. If anyone knows of any strange community where they value some combination of receiving low quality legal advice and watching even lower quality hockey, please advise.

If George McPhee Isn't Looking Up Craig MacTavish's Number Right Now, He's Probably Breaching a Fiduciary Duty or Two

I was at this game and the highlights don't do justice as to how atrocious it was.

And re this incident from the previous night:

Don't ever do it again. It was a selfish penalty. Liles hit him a couple of times but this is hockey not Tiddlywinks. You've got to suck that up and can't do what he did. I think at that point in time we had 8-0 in shots on goal, we had everything going our way and then you've got to kill a penalty for five minutes.

- Boudreau

Kind of odd that a coach in the midst of a 5-game (soon to become 6) game losing streak, despite the most complete - in terms of both experience (age and youth) and functionality (scorers and grinders) - and stacked - in terms of elite offensive level talent (OV, Semin, Backs, Green) - NHL roster would call out and vilify the team's most consistently productive player, a player who leads them, by a far margin, in EV and PP scoring efficiency, and who plays an important and effective role on the PK as well, for basically defending himself, after a career in which it's become painfully clear that NHL refs have no interest in doing so. What a joke. And the team responded as they should: with no desire in saving the job of a hokey, "golly, gee" faux-charismatic bench boss who's better suited to leading the Wheeling Nailers to the Kelly Cup than matching wits against the Babcocks and Vigneaults of this world. I used to be of the opinion that common sense and decency mandated that he be given this year to go at least as far as 3 rounds before being axed, but I don't think GMGM has any choice but to start spinning the rolodex (scrolling through the BBM list) to see who else knows enough about the Caps (and not the silly MSM narrative - high octane offensive w/o the defense or goaltending or grit) to start ASAP. It's going to take some time to undo all the coddling OV's received and all the bad habits - both on the ice and off - he's picked up. And the new guy has to know enough to play 8-19-28 together for an extended period.

Filet Mignon or Strip Steak?

The Capitals begin their opening playoff series tonight after an historic regular season that saw them produce the 7^th most impressive offensive season in the history of the post-expansion NHL. A great deal of that production has come from the team’s top line, with Ovechkin and Backstrom permanent fixtures on left wing and center, respectively, and with the right wing slot being occupied by either Mike Knuble or Alexander Semin. Semin started the season on the top line before ultimately being replaced with Knuble, with the exception of sporadic games here and there where Boudreau would reunite Semin with Backstrom and Ovechkin for a period or two with the Caps trailing. To begin the playoffs, as it has been for the last few months fairly consistently now, Knuble will be on the top line.

Which version of the top line is more effective? These numbers suggest an answer. Note that Fenwick numbers are shots plus missed shots, and Corsi numbers are Fenwick numbers plus blocked shots.

The results are fantastic for both lines, but the numbers are particularly great for the Semin version. Their Goals For / Goals Against, Shots %, and On Ice EV Shooting % indicate an exceptional level of dominance for that trio. The Knuble line has a higher On Ice EV Save %, though it’s unclear that swapping out one player would drive the results to that extent. My best guess is that Semin played a higher percentage of his minutes with that line while the Caps trailed, which would skew his On Ice EV Save % (because the Caps would face fewer but higher quality shots while trailing). It appears that Semin and Knuble each had approximately the same number of total events (shots + misses + blocked shots for and against) when on the top line and trailing. Because Semin had fewer total events than Knuble on the top line regardless of game score, I think it means that Semin probably played a greater percentage of top line minutes while the Caps trailed, relative to Knuble. That certainly comports with my understanding of how Boudreau used that line. And because their shots against totals are lower, a few extra goals against while trailing (caused by Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin being in hardcore offensive mode) would disproportionately affect the On Ice Save % more so than the Shooting % or the Shots, Fenwick, and Corsi ratios.

That would certainly distort the territorial numbers (Shots, Fenwick, and Corsi ratios) in favor of Semin as well. However, those numbers so clearly skew towards Semin, and the percentage of time the Caps spent trailing is small enough, that I think we can make the general conclusion that territorially, and in terms of scoring efficacy, the top line was at its best with Semin on it. I think it’s an important point to make and realize, though it obviously does not necessarily imply that that is the line that Boudreau should use going forward, as it does not take into account any effects on other lines. And I’m fairly confident that Boudreau ultimately knows that Semin helps that line more than Knuble, as evidenced by his reuniting it down the stretch to help Ovechkin’s cause in the scoring and goal races. But depending on the way things go at various stages of the playoffs, Boudreau should not hesitate to reunite the line when he really needs a goal or to shift the momentum in his favor. I know he'll do it in the third if the Caps are down a goal, but I think there could be other times where going to the power trio earlier makes sense.

Incidentally, I looked at a couple other lines around the league that I thought might have approximated the Caps top line with Semin. It turns out, they did not. Ovechkin / Backstrom / Semin is a ridiculously good line.

Esthetics don't equal success

Mercifully, it all comes to an end.

I don't think anyone expected that. Some of the signs were there, though:

• I remember Dan Bylsma well from when he joined the LA Kings toward the end of Gretzky's career there. Gretzky, or more accurately his arrival to LA and its facsimile of a hockey team, changed my life irrevocably. He was my Dominique Wilkins replacement (which is not said with an iota of irony or rue). My DNA was filled with more hockey-receptors than the basketball- kind, so this had retardedly significant ramifications. I lived and died with the LA Kings for a few years, until it was mostly dying, and my once mighty idol - that spring of 93 was something though, eh - was schleppnig through whatever detritus a penny-foolish, pound-foolish management team threw against the wall and hoped stuck. Long story short, it got bad towards the end, with the Kings calling up career minor leaguer Danny Bylsma, a good penalty killer and hard worker, to fill one of the many holes in their lineup (John Slaney was one of the few kids they got right... and then promptly gave up on (though to be fair, several teams did the same, including the Caps eventually - beauty player though)), and I remeber one shift in particular when Gretzky broke in 2-on-1, a rare event at this point in his career, and threaded a pass between the skates of Bylsma (can you imagine what that poor bastard who had never scored 20 goals in professional hockey was thinking being in the NHfuckingL breaking in alone with Wayne fucking Gretzy), and Bylsma wiffed ingloriously. And fell down in the process. Another chance wasted in a season of wasted chances and poor results. I remember cursing Bylsma at the time - how could he fuck up a pass from my Gretz - but shortly thereafter feeling bad for him, knowing the whole time it wasn't really his fault and that the team, and Gretz to a certain extent, sucked.

• I didn't know what to think when Bylsma got the job in Pittsburgh. I thought Therien was a great coach, for sure, but one who had probably seen his shelf-life expire at that point with that team (that happens frequently with miserable bastards, French-Canadians even sooner I think). But oh my what a job he's done. I don't think the Penguins personnel is any better - no matter how you consider it - than the Capitals (in fact, I think it's worse). But they certainly are a better team - and play better as one, if that's a distinction - than the Crapitals (no sic.) - and it's not particularly close. Don't let the 7 games and 3 OT's fool you. They basically dominated possession and position throughout. And I think alot of that comes from Bylsma. And from Therien. Ol' Michel instilled in them a strong defensive responsibility/acumen, the competing in all three zones, the X's and O's of where to be without the puck. That kind of foundation takes time, hard work, and a whole mess of unpleasantness (a bunch of things the Boudreau-led Caps never achieved/endured). Bylsma brought a voice and face of someone the team didn't view as an unbearable asshole, which is important. He opened things up a bit, let the team skate forward without the puck, made the game a little more fun again. And he's a smart fucking guy. Everything I heard him say during the Caps series made me think, "this guy 1) actually knows what he's talking about, and 2) and can say it in an interesting way." Which is unbelievably rare for a hockey coach, let alone a human.
  

• I've traditionally been a big Bourdreau fan, to the extent he's got that hard-to-hate-on portly shape and fun-loving, golly-gee-how'd-i-end-up-here demeanor. He isn't afraid to try to be funny or even silly, the players clearly love him, and he doesn't try to suffocate or hinder skill. Folky, gregarious, loyal; a guy that if you don't like the rigidity and absence of personality of pro sports, it's hard to root against. That said, he's probably the worst possible coach for that group of guys right now. He gives them way too much rope, allows them to play as loosey-goosey as any team the NHL has seen since NHL'ers stopped smoking Camel lights on game days. OV, Semin, Green are all given waaay too much automony: they overstay shifts, don't really have to be hyper vigilant away from the puck, and have not been sufficiently admonished into making safe plays at all times in all zones. It's a curse of having an excess of skill, but it's one Boudreau had to address if he wanted this team to be great rather than good. In the end, they weren't very good. Too loosey-goosey, assholes.
  

• To a certain extent, there is a personnel problem, as the Pens have a beautiful and brilliant shutdown tandem of Hal Gill and Rob Scuderi that combined make less money than the last top D pair of the Hartford Whalers (Zarley Zalapski and Glen Wesley?). The Caps should, in theory, be able to at least match that, or at least frustrate the hell out of Crosby and his pathetic sidekicks, with Morrisson and Poti, but different roles, different results (having Crosby and Malkin on different lines complicates things, of course) (Jeff Schultz proves useless yet again. Boy I wish we kept Johnny Oduya instead).

• The better team won (empahsis on team, not collection of players). And honestly, I'm a lot happier with it that way. Now Detroit needs to defeat the most evil collection of hockey players of my lifetime, and I'll be able to live with the stupid Earth continuing to keep fucking spinning.
  

Professional scouting within the NHL, terrible or just inadequate?

The little I know of Washington Capitals head coach Bruce Boudreau suggests he’s a pretty good guy and a pretty good coach. A career minor leaguer as both a player and bench boss, he came up to the bigs mid-year last fall and turned around the Caps’ season, making a bunch of good decisions and few poor ones to do so. He was rewarded with Coach of the Year honors and some well-deserved attention. He loves to talk and often has something interesting or funny or both to say about the game and his team. With the Capitals rarely venturing out in Western Canada, giving those folks few opportunities to see Alex Ovechkin in the flesh, Boudreau had a what I imagine was an extended interview session with a swarm of press before last night’s game against the Calgary Flames. The topic of Ovechkin vs. Flames’ rearguard Dion Phaneuf came up (the two play similarly punishing styles and have a history against each other, with Ovechkin famously leveling Phaneuf twice on one shift the last time they met in the NHL). Boudreau said something so unbelievably right-sounding but so unbelievably wrong that I was left shaking my head in disgust and bewilderment:

"I can guarantee they're going to put Phaneuf out on the ice every time Alex is out there," Boudreau said. "We just have to see how that works out. That's what makes Alex, Alex. I don't want to change him."

Anyone who has been paying even a modicum attention to the Calgary Flames for over the past year (which I would hope includes the subset of people who coach a hockey team that is less than 8-hours from playing said Calgary Flames) should know that Phaneuf is not charged with the task of playing against the opponent’s top-line. That task goes to Robyn Regehr and his partner, Cory Sarich. Yes, Phanuef’s quality of competition has improved since he entered the league and he no longer gets third-pair minutes and assignments, but it is clear and incontestable that Regehr is the first choice to play against the other team’s star offensive players. Shouldn’t Bruce Boudreau know that? If the Caps are playing the Flames, shouldn’t at least someone in the Caps’ professional scouting department tell the head coach who Ovechkin is going to face?

Sure enough, Ovechkin did not see much of Phaneuf at even-strength, despite Boudreau’s uninformed prediction. The two were on the ice for only 2.6 of Ovechkin’s 12.7 ES minutes. Ovechkin saw more of 4 other Flames defenseman (Sarich, Regehr, Vendermeer, and Acoin) than Phaneuf. Why aren’t teams spending the 10-minutes it takes to have this information before games? And why is Boudreau making garauntees regarding subjects he clearly knows nothing about? This increases my worry that Nylander will not be getting back with Semin or on the first PP anytime soon.

eulogy

a disappointing end to a pretty good game and a fantastic season. there's a tonne that could be said, but i dont have the stomach to engage in a full blown postmortem and can offer only a few thoughts:

- obviously i didnt like the call on kapanen's goal much. i understand the nhl's rationale and justification of the call, but the play looks awfully similar to one that went against the caps in the last regular season game of the season where fleishman hit a tampa defender into ramo. if the right call was made according to the rulebook, i think the rule book needs to be at least revisited with respect to two issues. 1) a player has to make an effort to not to make contact with an opposing goalie, so shouldnt a player have to make an effort to not make contact with an opposing player when such contact will reasonably, if not obviously, create contact with an opposing goalie? isnt this at least something we need to think about? is there that much of a practical difference from thoresen running over huet in that context and thoresen running over mossison who, thoresen knows, will then hit huet? 2) this is the kind of play that probably needs to be reviewable. i am hell bent against expanding video review to penalties or offsides or icings, etc, an idea that is so preposterously dumb that even the good folks at the nhl are not likely to consider it. but when we're talking about whether or not a goal was scored, im not sure i see a distinction between revieweing whether or not the puck crossed the line (or was kicked in or knocked in with a highstick, etc) and reviewing whether or not goalie interference occurred on the play.

- you cant complain too much on the poti call. obv the refs put away the whistle in the third (a move i agree with) and once the caps got away with the erskine non-call, they almost had to call poti. i think both plays were trips, the difference being that erskine did what he did to prevent a 2 on 1. poti had no reason to get so aggressive there, he was in good position, the caps were in no danger. but poti played great all year and all series, so what can you do. tough break for a seemingly good guy.

- caps came out and dominated early which they needed to do. 5 on 3 goal, long stretches of domination in the phi zone, including a mammoth shift by the fourth line against the richards and timonen group. that was a huge shift, one of those where it's only a matter of time before the flyers take a penalty. wash was able to change forwards with the puck still in the zone. boudreau would have done well to get ov's line out against a tired phi group. instead, as he never seems to do clever li'l matchup things like that, he put backstrom and semin out there. semin ends up taking a very lazy and stupid hooking penalty as the puck exits the offensive zone, and the flyers, of course, score on the ensuing pp. the game changed from that point. fucking semin. gotta take the good with the bad i guess.

- ovechkin must have had nightmares of that glorious chance he had in the slot before dishing off to an unlooking federov. wow, that's a great place to shoot when you're the best sniper in the game.

- one has to imagine that slava bykov has already called ov begging him to be on the national team for the world championships next month. ov's gotta be pretty spent at this point, but i imagine it'll be tough to say no, especially given the number of quality russians ruled ineligible to play.

- interesting decisions remain regarding some of the team's ufa's (huet and federov) and rfa's (green and eminger), as well as what the deal with varlamov is. should be a fairly busy offseason for mcphee and the team, but one that at least can justifiably be viewed with optimism for the future.

Tic-tac-toe-tac-toe to game 7

What a game, what a comeback. Caps special teams failed them for the first half of the night, and it wasn’t looking particularly good. If as of around 8pm EST Caps fans had their tomorrow evening reservations at "drinking alone and crying into their collective glasses" city, no one could have blamed them for overreacting. But everything changed when the much maligned Steve Eminger threw a 90 foot breakout pass from deep in his own zone on the tape to a streaking Brooks Laich: Brooksie (how good does that Bondra for Laich trade look now?) entered the Flyers zone with speed on a 3-on-2 and dropped it back to initiate as pretty a play as you’ll ever see in the Stanly Cup Playoffs circa 2008. Semin one-touched it cross ice to Nik Backstrom, who one-touched it back to Semin, who amazingly didn’t let the puck linger on his stick for more than a fraction of what seemed like a nanosecond, firing it back to Backstrom, and calmly rifling it above the shoulder of the heretofore unbeatable Martin Biron. It was the kind of goal that not only got the Caps back into the contest, but put the bad guys on their heels and let both teams know that the good guys were, indeed, very good. Much will be said about OV’s two third-period goals, both undeniably brilliant, and the Caps D and Huet weathering the storm early in the final frame, and it should be so, but it was that insane passing and finishing play, off a great effort from Eminger mind you, that started it all and gave Washington life. Anything can happen tomorrow, but you’ve gotta like what has transpired thus far and they way things are going now. Should be a great one. Go Caps.

stubborn or patient

i was going to write a long diatribe about boudreau's unwillingness to change the configuration on his power play, an omission that contributed significantly to losses in games 2 and 3 of this series. but then he went and finally did it in practice yesterday, along with switching fedorov and backstrom (a move i swear i was going to suggest in a post but was to lazy to do it before it was reported - whatever, one day i'll learn). so now we'll see how the caps respond, if those changes are enough, and whether it's all too little too late.

one other thing i'd like to mention re the pp debacle, i was watching the caps tv interview with boudreau from after the game (an awesome feature, too bad the players almost never have anything interesting to say), and he was asked about incorporating laich's net presence on the first pp. bruce's response, not fully understanding the question, was a good one: he basically said that those players are who they are and they werent going to change, that they were a good pp during the last part of the season doing what they do. i think that's right. if you ask semin and backs and feds to do what laich does on the pp, then you shouldnt be an nhl coach. that's not who they are and it's too late to change their abilities (similarly, if you ask laich to do what either of those 3 do, youre even dumber). the reporter rephrased his question to get to the point: what about putting laich on that unit? bruce gave the first terse response i've seen from him all year: he's on the 2nd unit already, theyre out there. now this answer is disingenuous at best and idiotic at worse. he knows that 1) the 2nd unit has been out there for around 20 secs if at all lately, and 2) it's the first unit that needs the net presence; theyre the guys that are going to get the zone time and create the chances that require screening biron or a body to get to the rebound. just a terrible, terrible utterance from boudreau and i'm guessing by his pained delivery and his actions the next day, he knew he had fucked up and that he had been doing so for a while. there's a difference between being reactive and proactive, and though nhl coaches love to use the words, i'm not sure they know what they mean.

oldest trick in the book

what a game. it really doesn't get much better than that. some quick thoughts:

• ovechkin was an absolute beast. obviously the game winner was ridiculous, but he was flying all night and hitting everything that moved. he lived up to the expectations in his playoff debut.

• the power play needs to be better. the first unit does not create any traffic in front of the net, and i'm not sure the current personnel is capable of doing it. the power play in the second was abysmal, with semin stickhandling along the boards and no one even near biron. that poor power play led directly to brier's goal and a subsequent dominating stretch by the flyers that almost decided the game.

• semin was pretty invisible, his assist on green's first goal was on a busted play. he needs to be better.

• what a pass by fedorov to green. he's so good away from the puck too, another great game from sergei.

• without a doubt this was huet's worst game as a cap. encouraging that they managed to win, but he has to be better obviously.

• what a comeback. it's beginning to look like this may be some kind of team of destiny.
  

Lines and Match-ups

Did someone say Playoffs? You can almost taste the excitement. Big news is that it looks like both Morrison and Schultz will suit up. Morrison back is huge, and though Schultz has played quite well lately, I actually wouldn’t mind seeing Eminger get in there, especially if Schultzy is less than 100%. For the bad guys, it looks like Briere is in, and Smith is back too. These are the line combos I expect to see tomorrow for the Caps:

Ovechkin – Backstrom – Kozlov
Cooke – Fedorov – Semin
Fleishman – Laich – Gordon
Brashear – Steckel – Bradley

Morrison – Green
Schultz – Poti
Jurcina – Erskine

I think the Flyer lines will shake out like this:

Thoresen – Richards – Lupul
Prospal – Briere – Hartnell
Upshall – Carter – Knuble
Cote – Umberger – Kapanen (could be Dowd instead)

Timonen – Coburn
Smith – Jones (or Parent)
Kukkonen – Modry

Line match ups could play an important role in the series, and as the home squad for games 1 and 2, the Caps need to take advantage of the last change. I imagine Stevens is going to want Richards line (along with Timonen and Coburn) out against Ovechkin. I’m not wholly bothered by this, but I’d like to see Boudreau avoid that match up if he can and get Ovechkin’s troika out against the Briere line, making Briere and Prospal play in their own zone, something they definitely don’t want to do (the Rangers used Jagr’s line against Briere last year in the playoffs and Briere got nothing done). Then throw Laich’s line against Richards ideally, and let Fedorov’s unit eat up Upshall, Carfter, and Knuble. However, if Richards and Co. get going (Lupul has had some playoff success), Coach Bruce will probably need to play Fedorov against those guys. As great as Richards has been and is going to be, I still think the 38 year old Russian can utilize his decades of high level and high stakes experience and put the snot nosed kid in his back pocket. These two coaches know each other from the AHL days, and I think you can expect significant in-game maneuvering and line matching (expect Boudreau to be trying his best to get Ovechkin out against Philly’s third defensive pair). Whoever wins the matching games could go a long way in determining the series winner.

battle for the throne of blood

My recent descent to a luftmensch has seen its share of flailings, not the least of which is the sporadic and unfocused nature of postings here. Hopefully, that will now change as I begin what I expect to be a long series of posts on the Washington Capitals’ run in the NHL playoffs. The Caps have been getting a lot of attention around the league and in the media recently, so let me first fend off any allegations of fairweatherism that may be lobbed at me. A long time hockey fan, I have no hometown team that I root for. Originally an LA Kings fan, I followed Gretzky to the Rangers before Neil Smith ruined the Great One’s last chance at greatness (or even the playoffs) by refusing to part with Manny Malhotra for Pavel Bure. I subsequently discarded any particular allegiance, while still adoring the game and more importantly its players, until the Penguins fired overreacting ogre Kevin Constantine in 2000 and hired Herb Brooks, who promised to employ a run-and-gun, free-flowing attack, which seemed perfectly suited to a team full of European, offensive dynamos. The Pens rolled out some of my favorite players (Kovalev, Straka, Morozov, Kasparitis) and some others I learned to appreciate (Jagr, Lang, Titov). I had finally found my team. The team hired a Euro coach, Lemieux returned the next season, they used five forwards on the powerplay (basically for the two full minutes), and I fell deeper into the throes of fandom. Then, it turned out the coach (Ivan Hlinka, RIP) didn’t know how to coach in the NHL, Jagr, after being asked to be traded twice in-season, finally was traded, Lemieux’s hip went bum, and the firesale was in full force (whatever happened to Sergei Anshakov?). There was little point in continuing to root for a team that bore no resemblance (outside of Morozov still getting no love from Penguin fans) to the one I had fallen for.

There was a brief flirtation with the Ottawa Senators, but I was mostly without a team coming out of the lockout (not including the century-anniversary AK Bars Kazan). Alexander Ovechkin’s dynamic abilities and vivacious personality seemed like an obvious starting point to favor a team, and the following year he was matched (and surpassed in some ways) in slickness and flair by countrymen Alexander Semin. So far, so good. The offseason acquisition of one of my favorite players, Michael Nylander, only sweetened the deal (Nylander would tear his rotator cuff early in the year, apparently from tapping his stick on the ice demanding the puck so frequently). Captain Chris Clark is a warrior and Shaone Morrison is as steady as they come. However, there’s a difference between loving a team and living and dying with them every period, every goal, every wasted 5-3. The Caps had a bunch of players I liked, but they were not a team I loved. That changed with the hiring of career minor leaguer and Slapshot extra, coach Bruce Boudreau. A lot of how much you can cheer for a team, for me at least, has to do with the coaching. Obviously, I can’t put myself in the skates of any NHL player and realistically consider what I would do in their position. It’s easier, however, to imagine oneself behind the bench, juggling line combinations, motivating the troops, charming the media, configuring the powerplay, etc. It’s the coach who sets the tone for the team, and as much as I think Glen Hanlon is probably a good guy, by the end of it he looked like he badly needed a drink and to get canned, in reverse order. Boudreau came in and totally changed the way they played, both for the aesthetic betterment of myself (Mike Green free reign to rush the puck up the ice like a madman, Ovechkin staying on the point for the full powerplay, etc), and the success of the team. He’s as affable and as humble as they come, and I can’t imagine a nicer success story to come out of the NHL coaching ranks in years and years. Add in the classiness of Sergei Fedorov and the hilarity of Brooks Laich, and this is a team that I’m rooting for with whatever’s left of my jaded, alcohol-soaked, cholesterol-filled heart.

So, the good guys had to go on an insane streak just to get in the playoffs: won 7 in a row, 11 out of their last 12, 30-something out of their last 60-something. This is a very good team playing as well as they’ve ever played together. Yet, I’m very concerned how they’ll fair against a pretty good Philadelphia team. Here’s why:

• Starting Friday. I hate this late start. The Caps were on an absolute roll with those 3 last home wins. It would have been great to keep that momentum going with Game 1 either Wed or Thurs. Yes, the extra days give Morrison and Schultz a chance to get ready, but they also do the same for Briere, Smith, and Hatcher for the bad guys. The Caps were playing so damn well for so long, this artificial break in their routine can only hurt them.

• Health. Yes it appears that the Caps D are getting healthy, but we’ll see how effective they are. I have no idea what Schultz’s injury is, but it’s pretty clear that Morrison separated his right shoulder. Game 1 would be about 10 days since it happened, and it seems to me that’s a pretty short amount of time to get back at it, especially against a physically punishing (read: dirty as hell) team like the Flyers. Morrison is so key to this team: hitting people, clearing the front of the net, covering for crazy legs Green, if he misses significant time in the series, or is significantly hampered, it could spell disaster for Washington.

• Philly Depth. I never think about this team except to mutter disgust for everything they stand for, but there are some pretty effective players over there. Incredibly deep down the middle (Richards, Briere, Carter), puck movers on the back end (Timonen, Coburn), physical presence (Smith, Hatcher, Hartnell). This is a pretty damn good team that ended the season with a pretty good run themselves (10-4-4 or something). Richards has turned into a great player at both ends, Briere and Prospal could be a tough combo to check, and Lupul is somehow falling ass backwards into goals.

• Goon City. As evidenced by the roster of cheap shot artists and 78 different suspensions, the Broad Street Bullies have returned, and you can bet they’re going to try and make this series more about gratuitous violence than actually, you know, playing hockey. I expect them to go after Ovechkin and Backstrom, try to get them off their games; they’re going to hit Green hard, every time he goes back to get it, every time he rushes up the ice. There’ll be a lot of legal hits, and some illegal ones too. The onus is on the refs to keep it clean and call any of that bush league stuff the Flyers are known for.

Nevertheless, I have to believe the Capitals have gone too far to wilt here and now. Here’s why the Caps win.

• Mike Green. There hasn’t been as swift and pretty a puck rushing defensemen in the league since Brian Leetch. This guy can skate for days and has some pretty sweet dangles to go with those insane legs of his. I expect him to blow by forwards like Hartnell and Carter and attack and attack the Philly D. If I could skate like Mike Green, I would never leave the rink. Negative points for homeboy sporting a Mohawk for the playoffs, but if it makes him clear the front of the net more aggressively, I’m all for it.

• Brooks Laich. What a beauty of a player. I knew he could check, but who knew he had the moves and scoring touch. I’ve been championing for a while now (to nobody in particular) for Boudreau to put Laich on the first powerplay unit, the thinking being that he goes to the front of the net and creates screens and puts in rebounds. His PPP/60 (power play points per 60 minutes) has to be one of the highest on the team (I should just confirm that, for another day), especially in the last month or so. But, Fedorov has been doing a pretty good job with the first unit, he wins faceoffs, moves the puck well, and is always back to thwart any shorthanded rush. The first unit needs to get more bodies in front if Biron starts to look as if he’s feeling it.

• Cristobal Huet. I’ve been a big fan for a while, and he’s played exceptional as a Cap. I have every reason to believe he’ll keep it going, and I think the series could come down to goaltending. Huet was great in his one playoff series with the Canadiens.

• Alexander Ovechkin. Is it possible that he finds another gear for the playoffs? Would this involve him levitating above the ice and knocking the puck around out of the air?

In the end, Caps in 6, with some nail biting along the way for sure.

A quick look at the other series and predictions:

Detroit over Nashville in 5 – Detroit is the class of the league, they’re almost totally healthy, and shouldn’t have much of a problem here. If there was another league better than the NHL, Datsyuk, Zetterberh, and Lidstrom would be the best players in that league too. Kudos to the Preds for getting here.

San Jose over Calgary in 7 – This one’s going to be a battle and I look forward to some compelling OT action here. I guess it’ll come down to goaltending and I think Kiprusoff has a greater ability to steal more games than Nabokov. I’ll go with San Jose only because they have a little more depth and have been insanely hot getting here.

Minnesota over Colorado in 7 – Another pretty tough one to call. The prospect of Forsberg and Sakic and Foote back together (combined with a healthy team finally) makes me think the Aves will win. Add in Minnesota’s injuries on defense, and it really makes me think the Aves will win. But I’m usually wrong about these, so I’ll go with the Wild.

Anaheim over Dallas in 5 – The Ducks are built for this and the Stars without Zubov are a shell of themselves.

Montreal over Boston in 5 – If someone would have told me a few years ago that Alexei Kovalev had a DVD where he showed off sick stickhandling moves, I wouldn’t be able to rest until obtaining a copy. I’m still pretty excited about this, but let’s just say, I’ve taken a different view on resting.

Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 4 – Classless but smart move by the Penguins in obviously tanking their last game to avoid the Flyers and get the Sens. Sens were a horrible team for half the year, take away their best player, Daniel Alfredsson, and gritty Mike Fisher, and this one won’t be close. The Senators need to clean house and it starts with the cocaine train Ray Emery and his apologists.

New York over New Jersey in 7 – In what could be the longest and most boring of them all, Rangers win a goaltending yawn fest. These teams play equally boring games, but the Rangers have more firepower to close the deal. Ideally, both teams will suffer a rash of injuries and be forced to call up Artem Anisimov and Niklas Bergfors, could be the only way I’ll watch.